Situation:
The programme has already been run for over 10 years. The format of it is modified by many other programme in mainland. How to raise audience rating? As a learning environment, it still needs long way to go. The improvement of using new 3-D technology is indeed needed.
The main format of the show does not change too much. While some issues appear with the rapid entertainment shows rising.
1. The format of the programme is midified by other programmes in a great scale in the past few years. Audiences are kind of tired of this format. How to survival?
2. As I have already analysis the learning environment of the organization. Combining with my own experience, the training imbalance between leaders and working staff make a gap which blocks the understanding of knowledge. This is, the leaders always receive the new horizon and knowledge, then they transfer it to the working staff, in this process, some points are missed.
3. Combining with new technology. As we know, many shows use new technology like interactive camera, SMS participation to attract audience. This programme also needs this.
Search for driving forces
From audience: the audience rating
From Sponsors: the stress of advertising
From TV leaders: the promotion
Find uncertainties:
1. If the format of this programme, will audiences accept it?
2. Will there be enough budgets for working staff to receive frequent training and alternative with new technology?
Scenarios and Plan
Scenarios | How to | Will |
1. Change the format | Collecting advices from the public, change the group of hosts Bring more interactive games | Raising audience rating Attract new audience and keep loyalty ones Attract more sponsors |
2. All staff training | More budgets for training and let everyone in the team get involved | Increase the working effectiveness Reduce “gap” |
3. New technology integrated | Change form recording to live Multiple connections with outside-studio audience | Raising audience rating Attract new audience and keep loyalty ones Attract more sponsors |
Discussion
Scenario planning involves identifying factors that could drive change in a system, and then systematically varying those factors in narrative storylines about the future develop- ment of that system (Fahey & Randall, 1998; Peterson, Cumming, & Carpenter, 2003). Scenarios help decision-makers cope with uncertainty by providing a framework from which to begin a discussion of uncertain and nonlinear ecological dynamics and potential futures (Peterson, Cumming et al., 2003; Wollenberg, Edmunds, & Buck, 2000).
References:
Fahey, L., & Randall, R. M. (Eds.). (1998). Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenar- ios. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
ennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., Zurek, M., & Pingali, P. (2003). Why global scenarios need ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1(6), 322–329.
Scenario Planning for Wildlife Management: A Case Study of the National Elk Refuge, Jackson, Wyoming MARK W. NEFF Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
Hi Fay,
ReplyDeleteThanks very much for your sharing. Yes, from the class, we all were confirmed that Scenario Planning is extremely important in today's various business environments for predicting any kind of situations and risks.
Take the media industry you mentioned as an example, the industry is highly competitive as there are so many TV channels offered by different TV companies. In order to increase ratings and gaining audiences' support, scenario planning has to be executed to predict audiences' preferences and the trend of the industry. Otherwise, the companies will not be able to succeed in the keen competition of retaining TV fans, like me.
Corrine
Scenario planning makes decision-maker more cautious and careful, but one thing needs to be considered, that is time management. Sometimes we think too much on one thing and delay the original progress, which may lead to disaster or something else. So how should make a correct decision while control the time?
ReplyDeleteHi Dear Corrine. TV audiences are taken away mainly by Internet nowadays. About me, i spent more time on Internet than TV in recent years. I only watch some really interesting programme on TV.
ReplyDeleteWhile, some articles and conferences about scenario plans of Chinese TV future are seeking ways to combine TV and Internet.
One example, some programmes open their micro-blogs to share with fans.
In my assignment, i hope i can find more possible solutions about this in my organization.
Hi Emma, I guess you mean some organization like to talk about future while regardless of current situation.
ReplyDeleteIn the scenario planning, time schedule is quite essential . While considering whether the time plan is scientific, many aspects should be considered. Under this situation, I think exchanging ideas among members is the best way to make decision including time management.