Scenario Planning

By Mia

Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our world. It need us consider different central issues important to the future of our business, and extrapolate uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces.

We plan to build a mini-library in the enterprise to improve the education environment and broaden staffs' horizon.

First, what should we do when the leader cannot support our plan? We have to communicate with the leader and explain the benefits of our plan. The most important is that we have to give a budget to the leader. Second, if we do not have enough money, what should we do? So we can only buy the book which is connected to the electric power. At the same time, the trainees can communicate with the library manager and give advice to buy the necessary book. In this way, we can save much money to buy some other devices. We can buy some computers to build a more advantaged library. At the same time, we can rent some book from university library or public library to increase books. During this way, we can change our books more frequently and our trainees can read some books about other areas. Third, if the leader and library manager dissent from each other, what should we do about it? The library manager has the final decide to take some measures to improve library environment.

Scenario planning is very useful to establish a plan of risk control to widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of possible future events.

A Case of Scenario planning

By Rainbow

Scenario planning can be used to manage the uncertainties and discontinuities of change in the future. Moreover, it helps anticipate hidden weaknesses and inflexibilities in organizations and methods. The process of scenario planning includes 1: Identify focal issue 2: Search for driving forces 3: Find uncertainties 4: Formulate scenario logic.

For a trading company, many things related to economic, financial and policy should be taken into consideration. I will give a case here.

With the advent of an order, there should be budget for the whole production state including the time needed for the production; the cost of the merchandise; the feasibility of the designated styles; whether those commodities can put on the shelves. As I remember once there was something unpredictable happened. The labor shortage was coming, so there were no workers for this order.

If the commodities were to be delayed, the company will pay for the penalty. Actually this is a particular case since there is never labor shortage throughout the previous years and to predict such situation is beyond our experience. This case was finally solved by negotiating with the buyer. As a result, we see the importance of scenario planning, as we are living in a changing word. There are also other examples. As a trading company, the currency should be emphasized. Then something related to the fixing the price can be done in advance.

Scenario Planning for Health Issue

by Corrine

Scenario Planning is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It involves aspects of systems thinking to predict future trends, both expected and unexpected situations and risks. It is extremely important nowadays in various situations, it does not only relate to the ever-changing business environments or education reform, but also the health issue.

Every year, I have to be responsible for the Departmental Staff Retreat. Last year, I had to bring about 80 staff to go to the Mainland China for a 2-day staff retreat. Though the flu was very serious in the Guangdong province, we still had to visit Shengzhen to have the Retreat. Owing to the serious attack of H5N1 and avian flu in recent years, I had to think of various situations that might occur during the 2-day activities before the trip. For instance, what should I do if one of us got a flu there? What if people forgot to bring their own sterlizing products? What if the Immigration Department did not allow some of the staff to leave Hong Kong and/or enter Shenzhen? I had to think of the solutions to different scenarios in advance so as to avoid any sudden or unexpected cases and to ensure that the trip would run smoothly.

Therefore, Scenario Planning is important for making predictions, assessing risks, and bringing something under control.

Looking at issues from multiple angles--Scenario planning

By Emma

Before my father’s factory was going to built, many things needed to be considered. I viewed the blueprint of the factory layout. At first, there was no dinning hall, but some department managers discussed together whether the factory should build a dinning room or not. Firstly I think it is necessary to describe the environment around the factory. It was set in an industry area, many other factories there, but no restaurant near my father’s factory. Workers needed to do 10-minute ride to a little country for lunch or supper. Managers saw it might be a big problem, so they made decision by vote. Some of them questioned if the dinning hall was built, who would manage it? it should be taken by external restaurant organization or managed by factory itself(just invite some cooks). what if the cost of managing dinning room is much high? What if the dishes are not fit for workers’ taste and only keep few customer(worker) eating there? If the number of customer is not sure(changed frequently), how could cooks control the quantity of dishes? …….

Many uncertainty factors were proposed by managers, they realized building a dinning room was not a simple event. Once blind build without thinking deeper, it may cause many problems and the company might cause a loss. So finally, they made some strategies

(1)    do survey for employees and collect information on whether they need a dinning hall

(2)    interview some people with typical taste

(3)    enquiry other factories which already have a dinning hall

Conclusion:

when making decision on something, we need to think twice, list uncertainty elements. besides the power of group is huge, different people treat one event are different. So before we do something or take action on something, listening to other people’s opinion is better than only listening to yourself.

Scenario Planning

By Fay

Situation:

The programme has already been run for over 10 years. The format of it is modified by many other programme in mainland. How to raise audience rating? As a learning environment, it still needs long way to go. The improvement of using new 3-D technology  is indeed needed.

The main format of the show does not change too much. While some issues appear with the rapid entertainment shows rising.

 1. The format of the programme is midified by other programmes in a great scale in the past few years. Audiences are kind of tired of this format. How to survival? 

 2. As I have already analysis the learning environment of the organization. Combining with my own experience, the training imbalance between leaders and working staff make a gap which blocks the understanding of knowledge. This is, the leaders always receive the new horizon and knowledge, then they transfer it to the working staff, in this process, some points are missed. 

 3. Combining with new technology. As we know, many shows use new technology like interactive camera, SMS participation to attract audience. This programme also needs this.

Search for driving forces

From audience: the audience rating

From Sponsors: the stress of advertising 

From TV leaders: the promotion

Find uncertainties:

1. If the format of this programme, will audiences accept it? 

2. Will there be enough budgets for working staff to receive frequent training and alternative with new technology?

Scenarios and Plan

Scenarios	How to	Will
1. Change the format	Collecting advices from the public, change the group of hosts Bring more interactive games	Raising audience rating Attract new audience and keep loyalty ones Attract more sponsors
2. All staff training	More budgets for training and let everyone in the team get involved	Increase the working effectiveness Reduce “gap”
3. New technology integrated	Change form recording to live Multiple connections with outside-studio audience	Raising audience rating Attract new audience and keep loyalty ones Attract more sponsors

Discussion

Scenario planning involves identifying factors that could drive change in a system, and then systematically varying those factors in narrative storylines about the future develop- ment of that system (Fahey & Randall, 1998; Peterson, Cumming, & Carpenter, 2003). Scenarios help decision-makers cope with uncertainty by providing a framework from which to begin a discussion of uncertain and nonlinear ecological dynamics and potential futures (Peterson, Cumming et al., 2003; Wollenberg, Edmunds, & Buck, 2000).

References:

Fahey, L., & Randall, R. M. (Eds.). (1998). Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenar- ios. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

ennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., Zurek, M., & Pingali, P. (2003). Why global scenarios need ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1(6), 322–329.

Scenario Planning for Wildlife Management: A Case Study of the National Elk Refuge, Jackson, Wyoming MARK W. NEFF Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA